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Mortgage Collapse

The credit markets are seizing up and the uncertainty recently drove up short-term interest rates for municipalities and some rock-solid institutions such as New York's Metropolitan Museum of Art to 20%. And now even so-called prime borrowers, the ones who were properly vetted, are being sucked into defaults on their mortgages. Yet it's still a relatively small number of institutions and individuals getting hurt by this not-yet-a-recession. So what's the worst that could happen

Sorry we asked.

A number of economists and banking industry experts believe the subprime crisis could metamorphose into the biggest debacle to hit the sector since the savings and loan catastrophe of the 1980s, which caused some $500 billion in losses to the banking industry. And that means the future of a couple of name-brand financial institutions could be in jeopardy.

Much will depend on how far home prices tumble over the next few quarters, how high unemployment climbs, how many homeowners are pushed into foreclosure from rate resets, and, most importantly, how far the crisis spills into the conventional mortgage market and other parts of the credit sector. "The impact here could be far larger [than the S&L crisis] in terms of the dollar amount and the spillover effects into other parts of the economy, particularly the consumer," said Merrill Lynch economist Kathy Bostjancic.

Why Home prices fell about 6% in 2007 and are expected to tumble another 15% in 2008, 10% in 2009 and 5% in 2010, said Bostjancic. Unemployment, which climbed to its highest level in two years in December at 5%, will hit 5.8% by year end and 6% in 2009, predicts Bostjancic. As this happens, she said, the crunch will likely expand into prime mortgages, home equity loans and credit cards, making it the worst consumer recession since 1980. The buildup of credit was "unprecedented" and is now unwinding, she said.

The Bush Administration's rate-freeze program for certain subprime homeowners and the recently passed stimulus/rebate package, along with the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cuts, offer short-term fixes. But it won't stop the carnage. "The principal concern of the current credit crisis lies in the possibility that banks will eventually run out of capital," said Doug Duncan, chief economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association, in his updated 2008 forecast.

Many believe the government will ultimately step in with a housing industry bailout to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars before it would allow a major bank to collapse.

Subprime horror stories have been making headlines for much of the past year as falling home prices, a pullback in housing demand, overbuilding, interest rate resets, growing defaults and tightening lending standards played havoc in the residential market. A flurry of mortgage companies, including American Home Mortgage Investment Corp., New Century Financial Corp. and Delta Financial Corp., filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Big banks took large write-downs, and chief executives from three of them — Citigroup's Charles Prince, Bear Stearns' James Cayne and Merrill Lynch's Stanley O'Neil — resigned. Citigroup and Merrill Lynch shook the market when Citigroup posted an $18.1 billion write-down, $9.8 billion loss, and 41% dividend cut, and Merrill Lynch posted its largest loss in the firm's 94-year history in the fourth quarter. Both warned of more write-downs ahead. "Who would have guessed the banks would have incurred the losses they've incurred already, especially on triple A investments," said Chip MacDonald, partner in the Atlanta office of Jones Day.

Experts fear this is just the tip of the iceberg. There are $1 trillion in outstanding subprime mortgages, with potential losses estimated at about $250 billion, said Bose George, an equity analyst with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. Columbia University professor Charles Calomiris pegs the losses even higher — at between $300 and $400 billion.

All of this comes as a large wave of ARM and hybrid mortgages are poised to reset this year — an event that could push the crisis into the conventional mortgage and credit markets. Once this happens, "it's almost impossible to imagine any bank or financial institution going unscathed and I would be very surprised if at least some aren't threatened," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a Washington think tank. He believes the losses will easily exceed that of the S&L debacle.

Subprime borrowers, who had eye-poppingly low teaser rates of 7% to 8%, will see rates jump as high as 11% when they reset. Even conventional borrowers with ARM and hybrid mortgages could face a crunch, especially those who stretched their finances to buy a home, those who took advantage of loose lending standards by taking out big loans without showing documented proof they could afford it, and those whose home values have plummeted below the mortgage amount.

Merrill Lynch's Bostjancic said the biggest impact of rate resets, from a dollar perspective, will come in the third quarter of 2008. She sees losses from all loan defaults exceeding $500 billion in 2008.

There are already signs the turmoil is creeping into the conventional mortgage market and other credit areas. Indeed, 5.6% of all loans were at least 30 days overdue in the third quarter — the highest rate in 20 years , according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Mark Greene, chief executive of credit analysis firm Fair Isaac Corp., warns that "losses on prime mortgages can easily be two to three times what they were on subprime mortgages." Delinquencies are also ticking up among credit cards and home equity loans, said Dennis Moroney, an analyst with TowerGroup Research.

"It kind of reminds me of the old cartoon of the little Dutch boy with his finger in the dyke, and while he's trying to plug up the subprime hole, there are leaks sprouting all around him," said Mark Fitzgibbon, director of equity research at Sandler O'Neill & Partners. "Subprime is just one small piece of of it."

Bostjancic said the credit crunch is already affecting consumer spending as U.S. retailers experienced the worst holiday sales season since 2001, and consumer confidence hit its lowest level in 20 years. "The amount of debt that's likely to go bad is virtually certain to be in the high hundreds of billions of dollars, and it wouldn't surprise me if it ends up crossing a trillion," said Baker.

Steve Persky, managing partner and chief executive of Dalton Investments LLC, believes the federal government would step in with a heavy-handed bailout before allowing a major bank to blow up. "I don't think the Fed will let a major bank fail," he said.

Still, some industry analysts and investors see opportunity in the beaten-down financial stocks and battered mortgage-backed securities market. "There are double-A and triple-A subprime-backed securities that have a 25% or 30% collateral cushion below them that are trading at 50 cents on the dollar," Persky said. "This presents one of the best distressed opportunities I've seen in years."

Sharon Haas, managing director of Fitch Ratings, admits investors "started to panic" and randomly slashed values on virtually all mortgage-backed securities, even those that aren't at risk. "The market just doesn't know how to value those securities," she said. It had better learn soon, or the price of that education will become astronomical

AFP

Fed Halts Mortgage Repos For First Time Since March Bloomberg - 2 hours ago 6 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve didn’t purchase mortgage-backed securities to add reserves to the banking system for the first time since it began a ... NY Fed begins purchasing mortgage securities The Associated Press Fed starts program to buy illiquid mortgage assets MarketWatch Mortgage Spreads Decline on Fed Buying Wall Street Journal Blogs BusinessWorld Online - Bloomberg all 216 news articles

Best Syndication

Report: Ga. mortgage rates among lowest Bizjournals.com, NC - 7 hours ago 4, rates on 30-year fixed mortgages were lowest in Arizona (4.97 percent) and Georgia (4.99 percent), according to the Zillow Mortgage Rate Monitor. ... Mortgage rates in Australia Meadow Free Press Net Branch Offices of US Mortgage Reports Record Low Rates MediaSyndicate (press release) Mortgage Rates Hover Around 5.00% PR Newswire (press release) KEYC - CBS42 all 33 news articles

Cuomo’s Settlement Over Allegedly Discriminatory Mortgage Fees Wall Street Journal Blogs, NY - 1 hour ago Also yesterday, New York AG Andrew Cuomo announced that about 455 black and Latino borrowers will split $665000 in restitution from mortgage brokers HCI and ... Cuomo: 2 firms settle mortgage bias charges Newsday Two Suffolk-Based Mortgage Lenders Investigated for Discrimination LongIslandPress.com Lenders overcharged Latinos, blacks New York Daily News Housing Wire - Legal News Line all 42 news articles

Leading Democrat offers US mortgage aid bill Reuters - 47 minutes ago A similar plan failed in the Senate last spring as President George W. Bush and many Republican lawmakers opposed it, but supporters of 'mortgage cram-down' ... Democrats introduce bill to let judges adjust mortgage terms MarketWatch Stimulus Package to Include Cram-Downs: Report Housing Wire Lawmakers set new mortgage bankruptcy bill Reuters MarketWatch all 12 news articles

Allegheny County offers homeowners help with troubled mortgages Bizjournals.com, NC - 3 hours ago 12, struggling Allegheny County home owners will be eligible for a little help with their troubled mortgages. A plan, established through a court order ... Allegheny County program to help homeowners avoid foreclosure Pittsburgh Post Gazette County tosses lifeline to homeowners Pittsburgh Tribune-Review Allegheny County plans court for veterans Pittsburgh Post Gazette all 17 news articles

Globe and Mail

BOND REPORT: Treasurys Move Higher As Fed Buys Mortgage Bonds CNNMoney.com - Jan 5, 2009 Short-term Treasurys gained Monday, pushing yields down after the Federal Reserve said it had begun buying mortgage-backed securities. ... Regional lenders need help, too Kansas City Star Fed’s Bullard: The End of Monetary Policy Housing Wire New year is a time for resolutions and retrospection Clinton Herald RGE Monitor - International Herald Tribune all 704 news articles

Attorneys general push to ease bankruptcy rules on mortgages Bizjournals.com, NC - 3 hours ago Current federal law allows bankruptcy courts to adjust other debts and loans, but not home mortgages. Goddard and other state AGs contend the courts could ... Goddard, other AGs, urge more help for hurting homeowners KTAR.com AGs urge Congress to amend Bankruptcy Code Legal News Line all 5 news articles

The Star-Ledger - NJ.com

State to offer mortgage help to Morristown workers The Star-Ledger - NJ.com, NJ - 1 hour ago The Live Where You Work Program will offer low-interest mortgages and help with down payments and closing costs to low- and moderate-income people who work ...

24dash

Mortgage rationing gets tougher BBC News, UK - 15 hours ago Mortgage lenders are continuing to demand larger deposits as they ration home loans to their customers. In the past month the proportion of new mortgage ... Dramatic Decline In Higher LTV Mortgages Find a Property Moneyfacts: Quarter of mortgages require 40% deposit Mortgage.org.uk Moneyfacts.co.uk: Mortgage lenders not passing on interest rate cut Money News The Press Association - Loans4 all 43 news articles

Conyers introduces mortgage legislation Detroit Free Press, United States - 3 hours ago Under current rules, bankruptcy judges can’t rewrite mortgage terms on primary residences – a fact that many Democrats have criticized as the foreclosure ...

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Mortgage Collapse

The credit markets are seizing up and the uncertainty recently drove up short-term interest rates for municipalities and some rock-solid institutions such as New York's Metropolitan Museum of Art to 20%. And now even so-called prime borrowers, the ones who were properly vetted, are being sucked into defaults on their mortgages. Yet it's still a relatively small number of institutions and individuals getting hurt by this not-yet-a-recession. So what's the worst that could happen

Sorry we asked.

A number of economists and banking industry experts believe the subprime crisis could metamorphose into the biggest debacle to hit the sector since the savings and loan catastrophe of the 1980s, which caused some $500 billion in losses to the banking industry. And that means the future of a couple of name-brand financial institutions could be in jeopardy.

Much will depend on how far home prices tumble over the next few quarters, how high unemployment climbs, how many homeowners are pushed into foreclosure from rate resets, and, most importantly, how far the crisis spills into the conventional mortgage market and other parts of the credit sector. "The impact here could be far larger [than the S&L crisis] in terms of the dollar amount and the spillover effects into other parts of the economy, particularly the consumer," said Merrill Lynch economist Kathy Bostjancic.

Why Home prices fell about 6% in 2007 and are expected to tumble another 15% in 2008, 10% in 2009 and 5% in 2010, said Bostjancic. Unemployment, which climbed to its highest level in two years in December at 5%, will hit 5.8% by year end and 6% in 2009, predicts Bostjancic. As this happens, she said, the crunch will likely expand into prime mortgages, home equity loans and credit cards, making it the worst consumer recession since 1980. The buildup of credit was "unprecedented" and is now unwinding, she said.

The Bush Administration's rate-freeze program for certain subprime homeowners and the recently passed stimulus/rebate package, along with the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cuts, offer short-term fixes. But it won't stop the carnage. "The principal concern of the current credit crisis lies in the possibility that banks will eventually run out of capital," said Doug Duncan, chief economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association, in his updated 2008 forecast.

Many believe the government will ultimately step in with a housing industry bailout to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars before it would allow a major bank to collapse.

Subprime horror stories have been making headlines for much of the past year as falling home prices, a pullback in housing demand, overbuilding, interest rate resets, growing defaults and tightening lending standards played havoc in the residential market. A flurry of mortgage companies, including American Home Mortgage Investment Corp., New Century Financial Corp. and Delta Financial Corp., filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Big banks took large write-downs, and chief executives from three of them — Citigroup's Charles Prince, Bear Stearns' James Cayne and Merrill Lynch's Stanley O'Neil — resigned. Citigroup and Merrill Lynch shook the market when Citigroup posted an $18.1 billion write-down, $9.8 billion loss, and 41% dividend cut, and Merrill Lynch posted its largest loss in the firm's 94-year history in the fourth quarter. Both warned of more write-downs ahead. "Who would have guessed the banks would have incurred the losses they've incurred already, especially on triple A investments," said Chip MacDonald, partner in the Atlanta office of Jones Day.

Experts fear this is just the tip of the iceberg. There are $1 trillion in outstanding subprime mortgages, with potential losses estimated at about $250 billion, said Bose George, an equity analyst with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. Columbia University professor Charles Calomiris pegs the losses even higher — at between $300 and $400 billion.

All of this comes as a large wave of ARM and hybrid mortgages are poised to reset this year — an event that could push the crisis into the conventional mortgage and credit markets. Once this happens, "it's almost impossible to imagine any bank or financial institution going unscathed and I would be very surprised if at least some aren't threatened," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a Washington think tank. He believes the losses will easily exceed that of the S&L debacle.

Subprime borrowers, who had eye-poppingly low teaser rates of 7% to 8%, will see rates jump as high as 11% when they reset. Even conventional borrowers with ARM and hybrid mortgages could face a crunch, especially those who stretched their finances to buy a home, those who took advantage of loose lending standards by taking out big loans without showing documented proof they could afford it, and those whose home values have plummeted below the mortgage amount.

Merrill Lynch's Bostjancic said the biggest impact of rate resets, from a dollar perspective, will come in the third quarter of 2008. She sees losses from all loan defaults exceeding $500 billion in 2008.

There are already signs the turmoil is creeping into the conventional mortgage market and other credit areas. Indeed, 5.6% of all loans were at least 30 days overdue in the third quarter — the highest rate in 20 years , according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Mark Greene, chief executive of credit analysis firm Fair Isaac Corp., warns that "losses on prime mortgages can easily be two to three times what they were on subprime mortgages." Delinquencies are also ticking up among credit cards and home equity loans, said Dennis Moroney, an analyst with TowerGroup Research.

"It kind of reminds me of the old cartoon of the little Dutch boy with his finger in the dyke, and while he's trying to plug up the subprime hole, there are leaks sprouting all around him," said Mark Fitzgibbon, director of equity research at Sandler O'Neill & Partners. "Subprime is just one small piece of of it."

Bostjancic said the credit crunch is already affecting consumer spending as U.S. retailers experienced the worst holiday sales season since 2001, and consumer confidence hit its lowest level in 20 years. "The amount of debt that's likely to go bad is virtually certain to be in the high hundreds of billions of dollars, and it wouldn't surprise me if it ends up crossing a trillion," said Baker.

Steve Persky, managing partner and chief executive of Dalton Investments LLC, believes the federal government would step in with a heavy-handed bailout before allowing a major bank to blow up. "I don't think the Fed will let a major bank fail," he said.

Still, some industry analysts and investors see opportunity in the beaten-down financial stocks and battered mortgage-backed securities market. "There are double-A and triple-A subprime-backed securities that have a 25% or 30% collateral cushion below them that are trading at 50 cents on the dollar," Persky said. "This presents one of the best distressed opportunities I've seen in years."

Sharon Haas, managing director of Fitch Ratings, admits investors "started to panic" and randomly slashed values on virtually all mortgage-backed securities, even those that aren't at risk. "The market just doesn't know how to value those securities," she said. It had better learn soon, or the price of that education will become astronomical

TopNews

An Erratic Year for Mortgage Rates New York Times, United States - Jan 2, 2009 By BOB TEDESCHI WHEN it comes to mortgage rates, 2008 may be remembered as the year the market went haywire. Near the start of the year, some long-term ... Home-Mortgage Rates' Next Stop: Below 5% Wall Street Journal Mortgage rates hit a new low WLNS As mortgage rates slide, refinancing applications take off Dallas Morning News CNNMoney.com - MarketWatch all 385 news articles

CBS News

FDIC Agrees to Sell IndyMac to Investor Group Washington Post, United States - Jan 2, 2009 By Binyamin Appelbaum The federal government has agreed to sell the skeleton of IndyMac Bank, the aggressive California mortgage lender whose July failure ... IndyMac deal slowed by Fannie mortgage issues-source Reuters Mnuchin Leads Private-Equity Funds to Buy Failed IndyMac Bank Bloomberg Fannie claim delays IndyMac deal CNNMoney.com Forbes - Washington Post all 736 news articles

Realtors Protest Increase in Fannie Mae Mortgage Fees Wall Street Journal - Jan 2, 2009 For instance, for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to buy a condominium, allowing for initial payments of interest only and with a 20% down payment, ... Mortgage Deals Abound, For Some Borrowers VillageSoup Belfast What is life like after foreclosure? Pittsburgh Post Gazette Realtors allege Fannie hitting borrowers for profits The Money Times WalletPop - PR Newswire (press release) all 27 news articles

ITV.com

INSTANT VIEW-Mortgage approvals dive Reuters - Jan 2, 2009 LONDON, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Mortgage approvals for house purchase fell to a record low in November, while a separate survey showed credit conditions looked ... Lending Drop Bloomberg Fresh low for mortgage approvals BBC News UK mortgage approvals hit record low Financial Times Independent - guardian.co.uk all 655 news articles

Hürriyet

‘Piggyback’ Mortgages May Cut Modifications, Fed Says Bloomberg - Dec 31, 2008 30 (Bloomberg) -- Attempts to loosen terms on hundreds of thousands of delinquent home loans may be hindered by so- called piggyback second mortgages that ... Will mortgage rates drop again? Los Angeles Times Fed to start buying mortgage securities next month MarketWatch Fed move could bring rates even lower Seattle Post Intelligencer Boston Globe - Reuters all 94 news articles

Series spreads the blame on economy Los Angeles Times, CA - 6 hours ago Its reporters, she said, let their "myopic point of view" cloud their front-page story on President Bush's role in the mortgage crisis. ...

Real Estate: Different types of mortgages, what they mean to you Annapolis Capital, MD - 1 hour ago By BOB & DONNA McWILLIAMS, For The Capital One of the most important factors in buying a house is securing a mortgage that works well for your individual ...

Mortgage pros lead investors from pit Crain's New York Business, NY - 3 hours ago The surroundings may not be grand, but Mr. Spoto, who was laid off more than a year ago from his position as a mortgage specialist at Credit Suisse, ...

On the House: Low rates, but banks hold back Philadelphia Inquirer, PA - 6 hours ago By Al Heavens As mortgage rates decline, the question most readers are asking me these days is this: How low can they go? What the experts are telling me is ... Rescue me! Augusta Chronicle all 4 news articles

Modifying a loan may not help Seattle Times, United States - 5 hours ago "There are individuals for whom any loan modification would result in a mortgage payment they can't afford, because they couldn't really afford the original ...

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 Buying a Home  Home Buyers Tips  What is a Buyers Agent  Buying A HUD Home  woodlands texas homes for sale   Home Insurance  Realtor Advantages  Flood Insurance  Steps to Sell your Home  Selling Home HUD  First Time Home Buyer  Protecting Your Credit  Mistakes when buying a Home  Home Forclosures on The rise!!!!!!  Bad Mortgages  Sub prime mortgages   Mortgage collapse  Real Estate Recession is happening  US Economic collapse